Convex Drops in Technological Substitutions

In many empirical cases of technological substitution, the diffusion dynamics bifurcate and the sales of the incumbent technology suddenly shift from the smooth end-of-life pattern anticipated by classical diffusion models directly into the convex end-of-life phase. These sudden convex drops lead to significant differences in cumulative sales compared to forecasts used for selecting a firm’s technological capabilities. This paper develops an integrative model whose structure includes key interactions between performance trajectories, price dynamics, market heterogeneity, and information. Simulation results explain the underlying dynamics of convex drops, provide a boundary condition for the phenomenon, and extend the notion of demand heterogeneity.


Brice Dattée. 2017. Convex drops in technological substitutions, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 45: 54-73:

2018-03-06T13:25:01+00:00 By |

About the Author:

Brice Dattée
I am Associate Professor of Strategic Management at emlyon business school. I previously worked at Imperial College Business School in London. I received my PhD in management science jointly from Ecole Centrale Paris, France, and University College  , Ireland. I was a regular visiting doctoral student at between 2002 and 2006. In 2007, I was Finalist for the Academy of Management Best Dissertation Award in the Technology and Innovation Management.

I teach Strategic Management, Technology Strategy, and Innovation Management courses at MSc, MBA and Executive Education levels and have taught at other institutions such as Smurfit Business School, East China Normal University, and Beijing University of Post and Telecommunication.

My research, mostly based on simulation and qualitative process theorizing, focuses on social dynamics and competitive strategy in technology-based industries. Currently, I’m interested in ecosystem strategies, in the temporality of value, and in the micro-foundations of resource orchestration. I’ve published in international journals including Organization Science, Academy of Management Journal, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Journal of Engineering and Technology Management.

I am a strategic advisor to several science and technology-based ventures and a seed investor. I also co-founded LogaRythm, a company specializing in music production, and immersive binaural audio editing.

During 2017-2018, I will be a Visiting Scholar in the Strategy and Entrepreneurship department at London Business School.

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